STRATEGY
CORNERSTONES
Cornerstone
A
The
main difference between a professional punter and an amateur
is that the professional spends less time and effort looking
for winners and more time looking
for prices. That is the aspect of betting on which
you must concentrate if you are ever to succeed long term.
Cornerstone
B.
The
best bet in a race is not necessarily the most likely winner.
Given two options on the roll of a dice, ‘any number
over two’ and ‘any number below three’,
the first option is the likeliest winner, but, at odds of
2/5 and 5/2 respectively, it would be the worst bet of the
two.
Cornerstone
C
Sequences,
both good and bad, are an unavoidable
part of betting. Yet, whatever your current sequence may
be, it does not in any way affect the chance of your next
bet. The fact that you have either won or lost your last
seven bets does not give your eighth any more or less chance
than it already has.
Cornerstone
D
The
effect of additional weight is greatly negated on tight
horse racing tracks. The horses are continually running
around bends and never get into the prolonged straight gallop
where extra weight would tell. On such tracks we would therefore
expect those at the top of the handicap to do well.
Cornerstone
E
"He
will price up the race himself before the markets open…..if
he can’t get the price he wants he won’t even
have a penny on, no matter how much of a good thing he thinks
the horse is." Terry Ramsden describing the key to
the success of legendary punter J. P. McManus.
Cornerstone
G
Don’t
worry about losing sequences, expect them. Provided your
bets are made at a bigger price than they really should
be you will come out on top. A couple of 7/1 winners at
either end of a losing sequence of 28 will return just as
much as another series of 32 bets, all made at even money,
with an alternate win-lose pattern, and comprising losing
sequences of no more than one.
Cornerstone
H
As
a professional you need to understand that you
are betting against other punters and not against
a bookmaker or TAB. Terms such as ‘beat the bookie’
and players who refer to bookmakers and tote as ‘the
enemy’ don’t reflect the mechanics of betting.
Your ‘enemies’ are your fellow punters, and
the bookmaker ot tote merely provides a service through
which you compete with them.
Cornerstone
I
For
some reason punters tend to stake more than normal on the
big meetings. The truth is that high value bets are more
difficult to find in races where there are more serious
contenders. The seasoned professional maintains an ingrained
discipline at these times. If you are operating with a fixed
staking method from a pre-prepared betting bank this is
a potential pitfall which will be avoided.
Cornerstone
J
Take
regular breaks from betting. It helps you keep everything
in perspective and gives you time to analyse your performance.
Taking time out is especially important when you are deep
into a significant sequence of results, and that applies
equally whether it be a positive sequence or a negative
one.
Cornerstone
K
When
properly controlled, professional betting is a very attractive
form of investment. It is vital that you have a betting
bank set up specifically for the purpose. The size of your
bank should be, at the very least, equivalent to the longest
losing run you can mathematically expect multiplied by your
maximum stake, and ideally you should also have a reserve
bank of the same amount. That way you will remain in control
throughout the period of your investment.
Cornerstone
L
To
have any idea whether you are obtaining value for your bet,
you must be able to price up an event yourself. You have
to be able to express your opinions in numeric terms in
order to compare them with the opinions of the layers.
Merely attempting to select winners is not enough and will
get you nowhere in the long term.
Cornerstone
M
Spending
too long studying a race is often worse than not spending
long enough. If you continue to study once you feel comfortable
about a selection you can become immobilised to the extent
that, even if you do change your mind, you cannot possibly
feel happy about doing so.
Cornerstone
O
Any
method which relies purely on picking winners is both fraught
with danger and incomplete. Staking
to optimise returns and the awareness of mathematically
determined sequences are both equally vital.
Cornerstone
P
Inside
information is useful in that it can highlight the fact
that a horse is fit and ready to run to the best of its
ability. However, to gain any real benefit from that knowledge
we need to be fully aware of the strength of the opposition.
This is often only possible through detailed form study.
