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Gambling odds and probabilities by prices

Decimal odds (like the Betfair and TAB odds are expressed) are a simple reflection of the return you will receive for each single unit placed.

For example, let's say a TAB is showing odds of 1.65 for a horse to win. This means that for every 1.00 you bet on that particular outcome, you will receive a profit of 0.65 should it salute.

To convert these odds to their respective implied probabilities we make a simple calculation.

Calculating decimal odds

So for example, our odds of 1.65.

Implied probability = 1 / 1.65

Implied probability = 0.606

Multiplied then by 100 to express as an implied probability percentage of 60.6%.

So a table of decimal odds / implied probability would read as:

ODDS
IMPLIED CHANCE
1.00
100%
1.10
90.9%
1.20
80.3%
1.30
77.0%
1.40
71.4%
1.50
66.7%
1.60
62.5%
1.70
58.8%
1.80
55.6%
1.90
52.6%
2.00
50.0%
2.10
47.6%
2.20
45.5%
2.30
43.5%
2.40
41.7%
2.50
40.0%
2.60
38.5%
2.70
37.0%
2.80
35.7%
2.90
34.5%
3.00
33.3%
3.10
32.3%
3.20
31.3%
3.30
30.3%
3.40
29.4%
3.50
28.6%
3.60
27.8%
3.70
27.0%
3.80
26.3%
3.90
25.6%
4.00
25.0%
4.10
24.4%
4.20
23.8%
4.30
23.3%
4.40
22.7%
4.50
22.2%
4.60
21.7%
4.70
21.3%
4.80
20.8%
4.90
20.4%
5.00
20.0%
5.10
19.6%
5.20
19.2%
5.30
18.9%
5.40
18.5%
5.50
18.2%
5.60
17.9%
5.70
17.5%
5.80
17.2%
5.90
16.9%
6.00
16.7%

Now these are "pure" odds and take no account of the TAB or Betfair "takeouts" so while you may think you are getting the correct mathematical odds are you have rated the chances, you will in fact be taking under the true odds without taking the "house percentage" in to account.

Hence the theory that if, over the long stretch if time, your method of selection returns 40% winners, by taking NO LESS than $3 (33.3% chance of winning) and taking in to account the takeouts by Betfair, the theory is that using a staking progression plan you may come out in front of the game.

The key word here is THEORY..........

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