BUT
WHICH ONES TO BACK?
Most people can
pick winners. Gee - just go with favourite and about 31
- 32 % of the time you'll be right.
The trouble with
that is the 68 to 69% of the time you'll be wrong and betting
on favourites at cramped odds $2 to $3.00 means that mathematically
you must lose. Almost like playing the poker machines that
have fixed odd losing. They of course claim they mere have
fixed percentage payouts but, believe me, it is fixed odds
losing and lose you must.
The
conundrum is then to back horses that, while they may be
favourite, they are still value odds. Please don't confuse
value odds with the Sky Channel presenters who insist on
saying really stupid things like, when a $30 pop wins, breathlessly
chant "well, there's a value winner!". Rubbish.
It isn't a value winner unless you have assessed it to be
a real $7 chance, or the like.
So how do you
effectively rate your chances to prices if you have laboriously
done your best to rate the chances? (Gosh (shameless plug!)
you may even be using our SelfRate programme. It doesn't
matter of you are using your own ratings - the principle
is the same. it is an easy matter
to multiply or divide the "runner points" and
"total race points" to suit your ratings
method.True "value"
and "overs" only occurs when the odds on offer
exceed what you estimate them to be.
Here's
a table:
| |
TOTAL
RACE POINTS (Total of all runners' points added together) |
Runner
Points |
40 |
45 |
50 |
55 |
60 |
65 |
70 |
75 |
80 |
85 |
90 |
95 |
100 |
105 |
110 |
20 |
$2.00 |
$2.30 |
$2.50 |
$2.70 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.50 |
$3.80 |
$4.00 |
$4.30 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$5.50 |
16 |
$2.50 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.50 |
$3.70 |
$4.50 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.00 |
14 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.80 |
$4.00 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
12 |
$3.50 |
$3.80 |
$4.30 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
10 |
$4.00 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$11.00 |
8 |
$5.00 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
6 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.50 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$16.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
5 |
$8.00 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$16.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
4 |
$10.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
3 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$34.00 |
$34.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
2 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$34.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$61.00 |
$61.00 |
| |
Consistency with the application
of these "overs" is the second key to success.
You then need to consider staking options - but that's another
story!
