ABOUT
RATINGS
Different
ratings methodologies have been around for many years and
have proved successful, in some cases, for just as long.
But
why do things change? Why does "the rot set in"?
A
variety of reasons - not the least of which is the new classification
system for the changing classes in Australia together with
the increases in minimum weights, seven day a week racing,
racecourses being re-developed and rebuilt and the effect
of new betting exchanges.
The
overwhelming factor in a horses price is it's most recent
form. The masses up and down the country will be backing
this horse either from looking at the form figures, or being
influenced by a the newspaper columnist, a tv media pundit,
or a leading mainstream tipster. All of those influences
would tend to base their selections on form in some way.
So
it stands to reason that to get real long term "value" you
can't always be betting with the masses - you have
to "stand out" and go in a slightly different direction
from 'the norm" or, like most punters, you will, in the
long run, end up on the wrong side of the books.
Why
Ratings Fail
What are ratings? They are just an opinion of which horse
is the most likely to win in a race. This doesn't mean that
they have to be profitable. Even if the ratings are generally
right and the most likely winner in the race does win then
this is not a sign of profitable success.
You
could just not bother with ratings at all if you are looking
for the most likely winner: You may as well just look who
the favourite is and back that as you'll get more winners
than backing any other horse and you didn't even need to
look up any ratings figures.
Of
course, backing just the favourite will return a loss, as
will backing the top rated horse of any rated method.
So
why bother with ratings if they don't make a profit?
The
answer is you have to be more selective.
The
ratings services will no doubt provide ratings for most
races on the card. This would include 16+ runner handicaps,
weight for age classics, open class sprints and maiden races.
It's very unlikely that any ratings service would be effective
in all those races so you need to find out where and when
they are best at.
It
may be a profitable venture to work out a few over-riding
rules from your own observations and overlay those rules
on to any ratings service you subscribe to to achieve maximum
benefit from having someone else do the initial handicapping
work on your behalf.
The
Punter
Another
reason why ratings fail is that the punter does not use
them effectively. He should not think it is so easy and
back the top rated horse without taking into consideration
the opposition.
What if
the top rated is 20 points clear of the field? What if the
top rated is tied for first place?
The
masses of punters are lazy. They just want to 'pick the
best' and back it regardless. They haven't a clue about
value, risk or price and just pick, bet and hope.
Those
who read the newspapers and follow the resident ratings
expert will just look for the black dot next to the rating,
or see the summary box at the bottom of the race field and
back the top rated.
What
the punter should do is look at all the ratings and see
if there are dangers to the top rated, and see how well
the favourite is rated to determine if that danger can be
eliminated.
Punters
will tend to look at the top rated horse only as this is
perceived to have the best chance of winning.
But
of course, this doesn't mean the horse is the best value
in the race. You may find that the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rated
is the better value.
