SEAN
BARTHOLMEW INTERVIEW
Sean
Bartholomew has recently been Australia's biggest
punter and is currently owner of racingodds.com.au.
He was interviewed on Racenet-TV. The following
are some short excerpts from that interview which
is worthwhile watching in full at their site racenettv.com.au
(On
early punting) “Every
Saturday the wages got a good run up at the East
Gosford TAB where I was from at the time and every
weekend I’d go in there with my fifty dollars
or one hundred dollars that I’d make at McDonalds
and I’d walk out with nothing”
(Selection
criteria) “For example, it’s
pretty well publicised I think that horses tend
to be pretty good bets if they’ve raced within
the last seven days or “on the back up”
as they call it and you look for little theories
like that, trends in betting that help the punter
to win and that’s what I found over a period
of time. There’s lots of those and you look
for horses where the trends combine and those sort
of things that (work) for them together and become
winning propositions”.
“…..to
win at the punting or any form of gambling you have
to have an edge that’s better than the next
man and I found very quickly that I wasn’t
going to have that edge watching videos so I went
and developed my own way of winning which is a statistical
way of looking at racing rather than an analytical
way of looking at (race) videos …..”
“In
my mind, with the figures that I’ve come up
with, I would say the four most important statistics
that any one can look at when they’re looking
at a horse race – the jockey, the trainer,
the barrier and the days since the horse had its
last run.”
( on jockey / trainer aspect)
“No, entire career stats aren’t relevant.
The way I look at it is over a five year period
putting a stronger weighting on the more recent
performance. So I go through quite a rigorous process
when I am looking at the jockey or trainer statistics
in that I judge what they’ve done in the last
12 months, to put a heavier weighting on that than
I do in previous runs or previous statistics that
I look at”.
“Exactly
the same method I do for trainers as jockeys”
(more
important than the horses form?) “They
all come out together. Everything is pushed together
with a different rating on different things I look
at there.
The jockey and the trainer weight stronger because
they’re…….. the best final statistics
than any other statistic . I do put a stronger weighting
on that”
“I
have about 35 things that I look
at for each horse in each race that goes around”
“I
don’t come out with a market. That’s
another thing that a lot of people who do the form
or look at horse racing do. They come out with a
market … and they say this horse should be
2/1. I don’t do that. Again, I don’t
think I’m the best at doing that.
I think that I am the best at saying that if you
back this sort of horse over a period of time you’ll
win 15% on turnover because it rates highly and
it’s statistically the right sort of horse
to be backing”
“There
are other market indicators that I look at for the
price of the horse like the totes and what they’re
paying through trifectas and doubles and that sort
of thing and that determines when I bet rather than
what I bet on”.
“There’s
more value in Australian racing than there is in
any other form, any other country’s racing….
Australian punters think differently to the rest
of the punters in the world.
Australian punters, when you look at tote markets,
are more geared to backing outsiders, the general
public, and the professional punters, they are looking
at backing the favourites in Australia. The money
to be made in Australian racing is backing horses
in the market rather than horses out of the market”
“When
you look at a market like the Hong Kong market,
horses, prices are pretty true and real in that
the favourite you’ll find is around its right
price and the 100/1 shot is around it’s right
price”
“In
Australian racing you’ll find the favourite
is on its price and the 100/1 shot is gross unders
…. the closer to $1.10 the horse is, the closer
it is to its (real) price in Australia”
(On
multiples / trifectas) “I did
have a go at the trifectas and the multiples betting
– umm, I did win at it, but I found it very
time consuming. It took me away from my punting
in the betting ring and on the win totes which was
far more profitable…………….”
“I
prefer to back a horse that’s firmed than
a horse that’s blown. When you look at statistics
on that sort of thing horses that have firmed are
much better bets”
“I
look at the on course firmers and the tote firmers
…… (on Betfair / exchanges)
I think when they first came out they were a much
better guide than they are now…..there punters
on there very well informed and it was much more
transparent than what it is now (2008)”
“And
I think that as far as market indicator goes that
there are a lot of people on there who aren’t
winning at the moment and it gives you a false impression
of the horses that are fancied and the horses that
aren’t fancied”
(On
staking) “The way I bet is that
after having looked at all the market indicators
and after looking at what I’ve got a horse
rated at, might be $2.50 or 6/4 and I’ll say
to my people on the track just keep backing it till
it comes down to $2.20, keep taking any price $2.20
and over, and whatever I get on that horse, I’m
not sure what I’ve got on that horse to be
honest until a race is over a lot of the time”
(On
track bias) “I think track bias
takes care of itself….people get a little
too caught up in track bias…..”
“As
a punter myself I think the larger races (better
class) are the way to go”
