When
we sit down to study the form, there are of course many
different facets we must consider before we decide to
have a bet. What meeting to bet on, what race to bet
on, prevailing track conditions, distance of
the
race, jockey, weight class etc etc, the list goes on.
It is not an easy task, and if we consider ourselves
good form students, it will always be very time consuming.
But as good form students, we enjoy the challenge.
But the further down the track we head, it is becoming
increasingly evident to me, that one major facet is
standing out in every race we study. Not only should
you do your homework prior to the race, you should also
analyse the result after the race so you can work out
if you truly did make the right decision. And this analysis
has led us to the conclusion, that the single most important
part of form study is the barrier draw. We have all
seen the look of anguish on the owner/trainers face,
when the television cameras show them drawing barrier
number 16 in the Golden Slipper. And the look of dismay
when the owner/trainer pulls out barrier number 24 in
the Melbourne Cup, they feel like melting into the ground
and disappearing. Then not long afterward they are spruiking
"Well, he has the speed to overcome the draw"
or this "Oh, she gets back anyway, so the draw
doesn't really matter" What balderdash !!! Deep
down in their heart of hearts they are crying tears
of blood, green with envy of the people who drew barrier
1. Aren't they? If you were drawing a barrier for your
horse in a big Group 1, or a Wyong Maiden for that matter,
what barrier would you want to draw? Barrier No1 of
course, wouldn't you? Yes, of course you would. Speak
with any trainer when their horse draws a double figure
barrier in any race. They will always tell you the horse
will struggle from the barrier.
One of our old hero's, Keith Noud, used to appear on
radio every Saturday morning and spruik. "There
is only one decent barrier, No1, and then they get progressively
worse" True in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and still
true today in 2006. Look at the statistics of the race
clubs who provide barrier winning statistics. The best
barriers usually provide the winner of the race. Barriers
1-5 invariable provide the winner. With the breeding
lines of the thoroughbred racehorse being so wide spread
these days, the thoroughbred racing are much more evenly
matched than in years gone by. So to win a race, the
horse must get as many favours as possible, because
there are probably 3-4 in the same race with similar
ability. Therefore, the horse with the best run in the
race, will usually win. The horse who gets a lovely
sit in behind the leader, not too far off the pace,
on the fence covering the least amount of ground, with
plenty left to give at the finish. There's your winner.
Now other factors of course, do play a part, however,
if the horse has good form, is fit and sound, with a
decent jockey and it gets the best run in the race,
then it is safe to assume the horse will be in the finish.
Why is this? Why can't a horse speed to the front and
break the track record and win? Why can't a horse drop
out to last and finish like Bernborough down the outside
and win? Think about it.
A horse starts from barrier 12 in a 12 horse field over
1200m and he is a leader. What is the jockey going to
do? What will the trainer advise him to do? Use the
horses natural speed and get to the rails as quick as
you can and lead them. Right, easy, barriers open, jockey
does exactly as he was told, burns across from the outside,
gets to the front on the rails after 250m. Great, we
win. Wrong. The horse probably broke a world record
for the first 250m to ge there, and no horse can spend
all that petrol and have enough gas left for the final
200m. Sectional times tell us, a horse can do it either
early in the race, or late in the race, never both.
This can be accentuated if there are are than 1 or 2
horses that like to lead in the race. Imagine our jockey
tearing out of the barrier only to find two other jockeys,
drawn closer to the inside had been given exactly the
same instructions as him. After 250m, not only has he
spent plenty of gas, he is 3 deep and stuck there because
the two on his inside are not giving up their positions,
and the horse who drew barrier one is smoking his pipe
in behind the three of them just waiting to blouse them
away in the straight. So what happens is our speedster
from the outside barrier, because he used up all his
petrol at the start of the race, has nothing left to
give in the straight and weakens to finish back in the
ruck.
Let's take the other tack. You fancy a horse drawn barrier
14 of 14 in a 1400m race. Well, that's okay, he gets
back anyway, and always comes from behind to win. You
have been listening to trainer speak, haven't you? So,
the race begins, and as you suggested, your horse drops
back to last from his wide draw. Now, one of two things
can happen, fast pace or a slow pace in the race. If
the pace of the race is slow, sectional times again
tell us it is a mathematical impossibility for your
horse to finish over the top of the front runners who
have have an easy first 600m. Because the horses are
so evenly matched nowadays, one cannot run 2 seconds
quicker over the last 400m, when the leaders burnt up
little or no petrol at the start of the race. So what
happens, your horse comes from last, plods to the line,
with a faster sectional than the leaders only to finish
just out of the placings. And how many times have you
seen a horse back last on the turn, on the inside, and
the jockey rides him for luck looking for rails runs?
Yes, sometimes they win, if there has been plenty of
pace in the early and middle stages of the race, and
if all the gaps appear, and if one of the leaders don't
collapse and interfere with your Bernborough and if
........ Gee, plenty of ifs there, isn't there. And
astute profitable punters don't rely on ifs and buts,
they rely on facts and making all the right decisions.
Here's another example of what could happen from a wide
barrier. You draw 20 of 20 in the Doncaster Handicap.
No problem, 600m run to the first turn, always pace
on, doesn't matter if we get trapped wide, we can get
cover. Again, balderdash !!! Trainer speak, who are
you fooling? Only yourself. Only three choices form
this barrier draw. Either the jockey leads, which will
inevitably mean the horse won't have enough petrol at
the end of the race, because there is always pace on
in a 20 horse field. The horse goes to the rear and
has 19 other rump steaks in front of him, and he has
to go 6-8 wide on the turn, or ride for luck on the
inside through plenty of traffic. Or, the horse gets
trapped 3,4 maybe 5 deep for the entire 1600m, and you
cannot seriously expect a horse to have that type of
run and still finish off better than the horse who drew
barrier 1 and sat 4th on the fence, got the clear run
on top of the rise and hit the front at the 200m, can
you?
Okay, so only three choices from a wide barrier. Either
lead, drop out to last, or sit deep midfield and hope
for a bit of luck. As astute profitable punters, we
don't punt on ifs buts and hope for a bit of luck. We
just don't back horses from poor barrier draws. Even
in small fields, you often see a horse drawn 5 of 5,
stuck out there 3 deep. It has no hope of winning.
Sure, sometimes, your horse from barrier 12 will scoot
to the front, get a cushy lead, and sprint clear in
the straigh to win. And your Bernborough, will drop
out to last and receive a Super Impose like run along
the fence to win. And your Doncaster horse will sit
3 deep with cover and still win. Sometimes, but the
percentages are very low, again, check the barrier statistics
of any race club.
So as the astute profitable punter we are now, from
what barriers do we back horses. Just keep thinking
about our old mate Keith Noud. Personally, we rarely
back horses outside barrier 5 or 6, especially in small
fields. Horses from wide barriers, especially outside
gate 9, rarely win races. Barriers 1, 2, 3 and 4 are
the best to ensure your horse gets an easy run in the
race. And the horse with the eaisest run, will win most
races.
